December 19, 2024

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In today’s issue: The latest application trends; a likely conversation over holiday break with college students; and some of my favorite Future U. episodes from this fall.

THE LEAD

🚨 The early numbers for this admissions cycle are out this morning from the Common App, and four things caught my attention from the behemoth platform with more than 1,000 colleges.

1️⃣ Application volume is up, again. The number of applications filed with colleges that aren’t new to the Common App are up 8% so far this cycle. While some critics point fingers at the Common App for driving application inflation, its leaders argue that without it, students would simply turn to individual college applications or another universal platform.

• Maybe, but: The ease of use that the Common App provides does seem to encourage seniors to apply to more colleges. So far this year, applicants, on average, are applying to 4.89 colleges, up 3% from last year.

2️⃣ Test scores back in vogue? About half of applicants so far have submitted test scores with their applications. This is the first time since 2021-22, that year-over-year growth in the number of applicants sending test scores at this point in the admissions season greatly outpaced those who didn’t submit, the Common App said. 

• Test score reporting is up, although only a handful of Common App schools have changed their policies to require scores.
• Consistent with the past few years, those not submitting scores tend to be first-generation students from lower-income zip codes. 

3️⃣ Students are applying to schools deeper in the rankings. Despite the anxiety around super-low acceptance rates at elite schools—and Reddit threads and social media posts about how admissions is the “f$@!ng squid games,”— application growth this cycle is slowest at the most selective schools (those with admit rates below 25%) as the chart below illustrates. It seems seniors overall are getting the message and widening their lens on the search. 

• Yes, but: What’s not clear from the Common App numbers is where those applications are coming from.
  
  • The Common App breaks down applications by zip codes (applications from lower-income zip codes are rising at a faster pace than higher-income ones).
  • But the Common App doesn’t cross reference apps by zip code with growth by selectivity–so we don’t know if applicants from higher income zip codes continue to apply to top-ranked schools in greater numbers. It’s a question I hope to ask them to address for their next update. 
• Also, applications to public universities are growing faster than those to private colleges.
  
  • Despite the big tuition discounts that many privates give out, a trend of students skipping over mostly private schools that are just a step below Ivy-plus institutions where they’re expected to pay full-freight–something I noted earlier this year and will cover in the new book–seems to be taking hold.

4️⃣ November is the new January. Although binding Early Decision is what gets a lot of attention, it’s Early Action that is now driving the behavior of colleges and seniors (as you can see in the chart below).

• With the growth in overall applications, colleges can’t review them all if they mostly come in Regular Decision in January. Early Action helps them spread out the arrival of applications and get a sense of seniors who are most interested. 
• But a new problem has emerged: apps are way up for early. The answer from admissions offices? Instead of a Yes or No, it’s more often a deferral to Regular Decision. So much for finding out early.

👉 See the complete report from the Common App here. 

Home for the Holidays

With college students home for the holiday break, the conversation at some point will get around to how school is going. 

If you’re a parent, what you’re likely to hear is a lot of signs of disengagement: skipping classes, handing assignments in late, and a general unhappiness with school. 

The big picture: Colleges need to rethink how they cultivate student engagement as traditional approaches to motivation aren’t working with today’s students.

• Many students arrive on campus without understanding why they’re there beyond “someone told me to go to college.”
• Colleges need to help students see themselves as authors of their own education, not passive recipients.
• Disengagement has been linked to mental health issues and enrollment declines.

Why it matters: Students who develop growth mindsets during college are better equipped to handle rapid workplace changes and the integration of AI into various fields.

• “We have to be able to adapt to change, and there’s no reason why we can’t,” said Dan Porterfield, CEO of the Aspen Institute and author of Mindset Matters: The Power of College to Activate Lifelong Growth, during this month’s “Next Office Hour” webcast. “The growth mindset is for your eighth job, not just your first job.”
• Early intervention is crucial: the first semester of college can set students on their growth trajectory.

What’s happening: Many institutions are struggling with competing priorities:

• The push for quick completion (“get in, get out”) conflicts with deeper learning
• Focus on ROI and practical degrees can overshadow personal development
• Large class sizes and impersonal environments make it harder to foster growth mindsets
• Grade inflation and achievement culture work against learning from failure

What’s new: Porterfield suggests a “life resume” approach alongside traditional academic transcripts:

• Document moments of learning and growth
• Track experiences of joy and connection
• Record how students handle difficulties
• Capture instances of helping others
• Use this framework to help students discover their purpose

🖐️ At Franklin & Marshall College, where Porterfield was president, admissions looked for students who demonstrated a record of “raising their hand” for opportunities, dealing well with difficulties, and showing curiosity.

How it works: Successful growth mindset cultivation requires:

• Small classes early in college career
• Access to institutional mentors (faculty, staff, or peers)
• Opportunities for active rather than passive learning
• Faculty messaging that believes in students’ ability to learn and grow
• Sequenced, bite-sized learning experiences that build confidence

📺 Watch an on-demand recording of the “Next Office Hour” here (registration required; support from Gates Foundation)

SUPPLEMENTS

🔎 ICYMI: For your listening pleasure over break, some of my favorite Future U. episodes from this fall. 

🏟️ The Seismic Impact of College Athletics. The impact of college athletics is felt throughout institutions, but too often sports are considered separate from the rest of higher ed. On this episode, we connect the dots between recent changes to college athletics and the campus-wide ripple effects they could have with Matt Brown, author of the college sports newsletter, Extra Points.

🦾 Searching for Fit: AI in Higher Ed. In this episode, we tackle the question everyone is asking: how will AI transform higher ed? For help in finding the answer, we turned to bestselling author and professor of computer science at Georgetown University, Cal Newport. 

✂️ Cutting College Costs, Board Tensions, and Consultant-mania. In this episode, we riff through a range of topics. Among them: how no constituency is actually in favor of cost cutting on college campuses; whether consultants can play any productive role in higher ed; and how Disney’s succession drama holds many lessons for boards of trustees at colleges and universities. 

🎉 That’s a wrap on 2024. This is the last issue of Next for the year. We’ll be back in your in-box in January. 

Until then, Cheers — Jeff